Ladies and Gentlemen,
Thank you very much for joining us today.
Let me say in the beginning that we do not have any special issues this year such as significant extraordinary losses or capital increase that we had last year.
Of course this is 1st Quarter results and so there are no specific notes. The results reflect our business conditions straightly, especially the marvelous recovery in Containership Business, about which you asked questions last time.
First, I would like to touch on important points and then go through the details.
A-1. Financial Results for 1st Quarter Fiscal 2010
I will start off with "K" LINE's 1st Quarter Fiscal 2010 financial results indicated in this material. Operating Revenues were 253.8 billion yen, and looking downward in the column, Operating Income 23.1, Ordinary Income 20.6 and Net Income was 15.8 billion yen. What might have otherwise been considered full-year figures, we have achieved during 1st Quarter.
Such profit improvement was mostly contributed by freight restoration in Containership Business, for which we certainly appreciate many of our customers' understanding and support to the freight rate negotiations where we entered with unwavering resolve.
Simultaneously, as I also mentioned last time, impact of Eco Slow Steaming, navigation speed reduction, which has been carried out by all ships in all of our service routes, or entire fleet of our Consortium members since April 1st, proved considerably effective, and as a result, fuel oil cost reduction contributed significantly.
On the other hand, earnings by dry bulk carriers, all of Cape-size, Panamax, Handy-size, did fairly well especially during 1st Quarter, whereas we had somewhat intentionally projected level of those freight rates considerably conservative.
However, as you know well, since beginning of July, freight rate market especially for Cape-size vessels has seen abnormal fluctuations, and how the market will move in 2nd Quarter and further in 2nd Half has surely become an enormous and uncertain factor nowadays.
This is our report about financial results for1st Quarter Fiscal 2010, indicated in the left column in the left side table in this slide. For your guidance, average exchange rate between Yen and U.S. dollar during the period was 92.81 yen per one U.S. dollar, and average bunker oil price was 475 U.S. dollars per metric ton. As of today, the price is around 490 U.S. dollars, and exchange rate is, needless to say, in 86-88 yen range. How the trend for each of these factors will be going in 2nd Quarter and 2nd Half has become a serious concern.
A-2. Estimate for 1st Half/ Yearly Fiscal 2010
On the basis of this 1st Quarter results, regarding our revised estimation for 1st half and full year indicated in this Slide A-2, for Containership Business during 2nd Quarter, because container flows reach a peak in every trade every year especially in summer, we will try to assess additional peak season surcharge to some extent; while partly for trans-pacific routes, we slightly decreased the amount of additional surcharge from July to August 1st as we understand and hold that the relatively recovered freight rate level that we have already restored will surely maintain the level of what it is within 2nd Quarter.
For guidance, to explain the transition of freight rates expected for this full year on basis of index freight level of 1st Quarter 2008 = 100, we had expected freight rate for Asia-North America trades as approximately 85, and Asia-Europe 95 throughout this entire fiscal year, which I had quoted this April when we announced our previous yearly forecasts. Recent freight rate level for Asia - North America trades has not yet reached 100, say 92 or 93.
On the other hand, in Asia-Europe trade, the freight rate recovered to a level over 100.
However, as I mentioned previously in this April, the index 1st Quarter 2008 = 100, only applies on freight rates for marine shipments. Considering such factors that in the 1st Quarter 2008 the average exchange rate between yen and U.S. dollar was around 110 yen, and bunker oil price was 380 U.S. dollars per metric ton, we understand that Containership freight rates have still not yet recovered to a level that will enable us to make suitable investment and we must work further to gain our customersf understanding for rate restoration to an adequate level and maintaining it for a few years.
Nevertheless, we have finally broken away from the huge loss posted last year, and having made that step up, to be honest we have been relieved.
Accordingly, with regard to estimate of 1st Half this year, we think that we can reach Operating Revenue 505.0 billion yen, almost as expected, with Operating Income 42.0 billion, Ordinary Income 36.0 billion and Net Income 25.0 billion yen as described on left side of A-2 material. For 2nd Half of this year, considering uncertain outlook for European Economy, how strong the yen will be and bunker price of 500 U.S dollars per metric ton on basis premise that crude oil price will continue at high level of $80-81 per barrel, we dare to say that we are not changing our target for 2nd Half from the original announced in April. We will try our best to achieve the target. Based on that assumption, it is our regret that estimated Operating Revenue of 985.0 billion yen, which is a combination of 1st Half and 2nd Half, will not reach to 1,000.0 billion yen. To tell the truth this is because of the strong yen to some extent, so we think it must be a little bit less than 1,000.0 billion yen, at least between 950.0 billion to 980.0 billion level, which we truly regret.
However, with regard to Operating Income and Ordinary Income, which was estimated at 18.0 billion yen as of April, as long as we can keep good figures in 1st Half, we expect Operating Income of 57.0 billion and Ordinary Income 48.0 billion. In order to secure a net profit of 32.0 billion yen which is almost twice our original estimate, we recognize that we have to make more effort towards further cost reduction, keeping eco slow steaming, rationalization of trade routes and others, especially in 2nd Half.
With regard to key points of variation factors in next material, which I previously explained roughly, taking the factor of Bunker Oil Price, although bunker price rose higher, effect of bunker savings by eco slow steaming stands out considerably.
As mentioned, scale of sales operation expanded to some extent and operating revenue is expected to be as we estimated. Although we expect average Yen-U.S. Dollar exchange rate of 85 yen in estimating 2nd Quarter, for 2nd Half our premise is 95 yen through 3rd and 4th Quarters as per our original estimate. About bunker price, we expect 500 U.S. dollars per metric ton, same as original estimate. On the premises above, we are making our yearly estimate.
As it is just July, it is still difficult to forecast 2nd Quarter, although peak season will run along smoothly, especially in Containership Business, which comes every year. On the other hand, as we explained, each carrier increased extra tonnage allocation especially considering cargo recovery for North America trade. In addition, more than 20 large vessels with over 8,000 TEU capacity will be delivered within this year. Tonnage supply has had about 4% increase for Half year period, January - June only with the extra allocation. We feel 4% is a considerable figure.
However, it is a fact that cargo volume fortunately increased more than expected.
The trends will continue at least until the end of September. Accordingly we do not think there will be further large variation factors as to figures for 1st Half. In detail, we said as for Dry Bulk vessels, especially Cape-size vessels, about 7% out of 74 of our operating vessels were exposed to market as of April this year. From that time 3 months have passed, and automatically the balanced days decreased which are same as total 1,100 days of market exposure left on basis of multiplication about 5.2 vessels x number of days left which is rest of this year. Although I do not think it will happen because current market is at such a low level, if those vessels exposed to market were to be operated on basis daily charter rate about ten thousand and several more thousand like the current market, the impact to our profit would be about minus 1.5 billion yen. On the other hand, considering that markets mainly for Handymax and Panamax are higher than projected, and we have many vessels exposed to market comparatively in those sizes, even though current low market for Cape-size remains unchanged, it is possible to offset the loss by small-mid size vessels, so we are not thinking about the full 1.5 billion yen of minus factor. However, we would like to say just as to the figure itself, if the current market remains unchanged until the end of this year, maximum minus factor is 1.5 billion yen.
Finally with regard to dividend, we are just now announcing our entire 1st Half forecasts, including more clear-cut estimation for 2nd Quarter, so we believe there's still some question as to exactly what the dividend amount will be. At the announcement in April, what I said in front of you was that we will try our best to secure profit of 18.0 billion yen for the fiscal year by any means and dare to commit ourselves to pay 2.5 yen interim dividend as concrete evidence of our decision before studying actual interim financial results, although I was worried. About the amount of 2.5 yen as interim dividend, it is not under review at this moment but we think that we will review the amount next time we see you when we are reviewing 2nd Quarter and announcement of 1st Half or estimate of 2nd Half, if it is needed or it is reasonable. So as of today, we are making no change in the amount of 2.5 yen as interim dividend which we announced last time.
Although it is brief, we would like to now finish this explanation and general outline.